Vol 9 – Morgan Polikoff is Reading Polls So You Don’t Have To

Andy Rotherham: 00:00:04

Morgan, welcome.

Morgan Polikoff: 00:00:06

Thank you. Pleasure to be here.

Andy Rotherham: 00:00:08

It's really great to see you. Thanks for doing this.

Morgan Polikoff: 00:00:10

Yeah, my pleasure.

Andy Rotherham: 00:00:12

So those of you who are regular, uh, listeners or viewers will notice something's a little different here. Um, we've got Morgan Polikoff from USC. I'm going to introduce him in a sec. Jed is overseas, uh, on a fantastic, uh, family trip. And so Morgan, you know, we, we can't do the show without a Californian. So Morgan, uh, gratefully agreed to, uh, step in and, and pinch it. So before we get into it though, Morgan, I was hoping, um, you know, for, for the wonky folk, uh, crowd, talk a little bit about, uh, what you do now and a little bit your background in education.

Morgan Polikoff: 00:00:45

Sure, yeah. So I'm a professor at USC in the Rossier School of Education. I study, uh, for a long time I've studied standards. based reform policies. So, um, you know, going back to the No Child Left Behind era and then Common Core. I wrote a book on that topic in 2021 called Beyond Standards. And, uh, then another thing that I do is I'm kind of like a, you know, quote unquote, public intellectual. And so over time, that's evolved in various ways. But one thing that I do a lot of these days is I look at public opinion on education. So I've I've directed some state and nationally representative surveys focused on education policy and, and since COVID as well, I've co directed the education portion of something called the Understanding America Study, and we've really tracked American families educational experiences since COVID. So, um, so yeah, I pay a lot of attention to public opinion and, and public, uh, uh, you know, what's going on in education policy around the country.

Andy Rotherham: 00:01:41

Yeah, and I should add Morgan's a fantastic Twitter follow. So if you want to, uh, um, or I guess, what do we say now? An X?

Morgan Polikoff: 00:01:48

I mean, it's down the tube. There's nothing left there anyway, but sure.

Andy Rotherham: 00:01:52

Um, yeah, but you're still, I mean, Morgan, if you want to follow this work and we're going to get in some of the public opinion stuff today and Morgan's going, I don't know. Are you on any of the other, like, there's all the other,

Morgan Polikoff: 00:02:01

yeah, I have any questions I made an account on blue sky. The problem with blue sky is it's all academics, which is, um, a little bit boring because academics are boring. So the spice of, you know, the spice of Twitter, right? The journalists and the policy wonks and the D. C. people, and then the random loons, you know, you just don't get that when it's all professors. So, yeah.

Andy Rotherham: 00:02:25

I think it's a little bit. I've been thinking about it. It's like, you know, like the problem in the Republican primary is like, there's too many alternatives. And so they can't like unite around an alternative to Trump.

Morgan Polikoff: 00:02:33

Yeah...

Andy Rotherham: 00:02:33

it's the exact same problem in social media. Now there's just like all these other platforms, but none of them have achieved critical mass yet. And so like Twitter X, you know, sort of just limps along because it's, it's, it's, it's the only one that still has like any kind of a critical mass.

Morgan Polikoff: 00:02:50

And I think the reality is that there's never going to be a perfect replacement for it, and we all just have to get used to that, and so, you know, those of us who really loved Twitter in its heyday, and I am certainly one of them, um, you know, it is, it is a loss, uh, that, that, uh, this is Platform seems to have been destroyed for as far as I could tell virtually no reason.

Andy Rotherham: 00:03:10

Yeah, I don't know We'll have to muddle through without a place. We can all go in the public square and yell at each other 20 24 7 um Uh, so before we get into the the stuff, you know We'll we're gonna jump in on some of these big opinion questions particularly stuff with parents, but i'm always just interested Um, and this is something I've never asked you before. So I'm genuinely curious. Like, what was your experience in school? Like, like what was your, like, you know, growing up, where'd you grow up and what was your relationship with school?

Morgan Polikoff: 00:03:38

Um, you know, I was really fortunate. My, uh, my parents moved to a town called Hinsdale, which is a suburb of Chicago. Um, right before I was born, um, well regarded public schools. I went to great public schools, you know, K through 12. And, you know, I mean, I have a sort of typical high achieving kid experience in schools, right? I was like, always the teacher's pet. I was, I did really well on tests. Everything kind of came easy to me. Um, I was very fortunate, you know, that the school system was set up to reward. People with my particular skill set, um, and, uh, and went to undergraduate then at a public university at the University of Illinois and started to learn in my education program there about some of the inequities that frankly, I was just too naive and unaware to really learn, um, when I was younger about our education systems, right? So, you know, I lived in a bubble and, and I, I didn't realize it at the time. Certainly now I do. Um, but I think, you know, what, what that experience really taught me is, um, and then some of my other experiences, you know, going into classrooms as a student teacher or doing research in schools was just like. How unbelievably unequal the system is and how, you know, the many, many ways that it's stacked against, um, you know, kids from low income families or kids, uh, you know, black and brown kids. And so that's really been a motivating, um, factor for me, um, over the years.

Andy Rotherham: 00:05:11

And then what brought you to California? Is that USC? That's what?

Morgan Polikoff: 00:05:15

Yeah. Yeah. So I, so I did my PhD. I started at Vanderbilt and then I finished it at Penn cause I followed my advisor who had moved. And then, uh, yeah. And then I got this job at USC. It's the only real full time job I've ever had in my life. Um, and, uh, 14 years later, here I am. So, um, All right.

Andy Rotherham: 00:05:32

So, fantastic. And you're in that broad bucket of people whose school was, like, very validating, and it was a place you enjoyed, you enjoyed being. And so, you, you, is, is that, that's what I heard you say?

Morgan Polikoff: 00:05:42

Absolutely. I mean, I will say that there were, you know, there were some small things, right? So, like, I was, Gay and I knew that I was gay in high school and this was a different time. It was the like, uh, what, late nineties. And we weren't quite there yet in terms of like what public schools were interested in doing to support gay kids. And so some of that experience certainly has, uh, you know, has affected me and the way I think about how schools. Should support lgbt youth but um, but yeah, no overall. I mean just uh, really Extremely fortunate with my k 12 experience.

Andy Rotherham: 00:06:18

Well, let's come back to that on on the supporting lgbt kids and and what that looks like but just start like with this broad question like It's an impossible question because there's, you know, over 50 million kids and their families, but what is the broadly speaking post pandemic, like what's the same with the relationship with schools and what's different now, uh, with, with the parent, uh, family sort of relationship with, with, with schools.

Morgan Polikoff: 00:06:47

Yeah. I mean, I think what I would say is it sort of, um, put into very stark relief, the sort of, heterogeneity, to use a very wonky term, in the system, in all its different forms, right? So, one thing that I think that we learned was, on average, um, and I think we could all agree on this, right? On average, kids learn somewhat less than they would have if they had been in school in person. But actually, there was a big distribution there, right? And some kids actually did just fine in online learning. And when you talk to their parents, they'll tell you they did just fine. And And even, you know, yes, on average, there's been a test score decline, but for lots of kids, it's much smaller than that, or there's been no decline at all. And for lots of kids, it's been much bigger than that. Right. So it really exacerbated things. I think socially as well, right? Some kids. Absolutely thrived in the online setting. They didn't let school was not a welcoming place for them. Uh, they were bullied or they were just, uh, introverted. I mean, we hear this all the time when we talk to people and they liked being online, right? And, and other kids, it was a total disaster, right? There were kids who needed that social interaction. And so, so I think it, so I think it exposed that variation. I think it, it also exposed the variation in, in the ways that schools were responding to things, right? You know, in those early days, it was, it was like, it really highlighted the local control issue. I mean, to someone like me, who pays a lot of attention to and thinks about that all the time, right? Like, Um, states, a lot of state, you know, states weren't really giving guidance to schools about what was going on or what decisions they should make. You had 13, 000 school boards making these armchair decisions about, you know, health and masking and vaccines and stuff that they, and even school reopening. And so it just highlighted, I think, in many ways all the dysfunctions in the system and, uh, and really, you know, then it just like crystallized, um, those in a number of different ways. And so what I, what I think that you see is that You know, overall, people actually think that the school system did okay during COVID. I mean, if you, if you, there are surveys that ask parents about that, and by and large, the school systems get decent marks. Um, but there's, there's that 10, 20 percent who thinks it was terrible. And that's because I think it was, everyone had such different experiences. And for some kids, what was acceptable for other kids was a disaster. And all that variation was actually within school, right? All that variation was actually within school, not necessarily between schools. Right. So, um, and it's, it's, I think it's, so that, that, that's my sort of high level tech,

Andy Rotherham: 00:09:39

was some of that politics was like in, in some place where like a social desirability bias around, cause it became, I thought one of the things I thought was interesting, you said like all these schools, these 13, 000 were trying locally to make these decisions. And then at the same time, what was happening was this like incredible nationalization. Of covid and you know, Donald Trump was having those crazy press conferences every day and people were looking for like to to to national solutions to these local problems. And in that context, obviously, it got political very fast. Yeah. Um, so do you think some of this also in terms of the way people respond to what they say is there's just like a, which team are you on? And so there's sort of a social desirability bias around, like, how you perceive this and what you're willing to sort of look the other way on.

Morgan Polikoff: 00:10:24

To some extent. I mean, so I would say this. I think if you're talking about parents, I think less so than if you're talking about general citizens. Right? And one thing that I have noticed recently, I would say, and some of the opinion data of various kinds is that there's a divergence between parents, people who have a stake in the system and people who really don't or don't have kids in the system right now. I think for parents, when you talk to them, um, Um, whether it's interviews or surveys, you just sit down and have a conversation. They, they can be very frank about how COVID went for their kids. They know what worked and what didn't. If they're going to be critical of the system, they're going to be critical of the system. And I think that that's true pretty much whether they're Democrats or Republicans. Um, although there are, I think we're, listen, we're all affected by partisanship to some extent, even those of us who would like to pretend that we're not.

Andy Rotherham: 00:11:11

Yeah, absolutely. Do you think that's more acute now? I mean, there's always been a gap. You know, you ask parents to grade the schools, you ask, you know, non parents that community grade the schools. I mean, that gap has always existed to some extent. Do you think it's, it's more pronounced just because education has become like become again, like more of a, like discussed political issue.

Morgan Polikoff: 00:11:31

I would say so. I mean, I think, listen, I think especially on the right, I think that there has been a frankly overt effort to drive a wedge between parents and the public school system. I mean, you know, Chris Ruffo said it on Twitter, right? So, uh, so there's no real surprise there. It's not controversial for me to say that. And I think that to some extent that has been successful, right? So they've tied it. Um, you know, some pretty politically unpopular things to public schools in a way that clearly has driven, I think, especially people who don't actually have kids in the school and therefore can't see the contradiction between what's being said and what's actually happening, um, has driven a lot of that sort of negative partisanship. But, you know, I'm sure there are examples of it coming from the left too, I'm sure.

Andy Rotherham: 00:12:20

You know, I mean, talk more about that because it seems like you've got there's like two buckets. There's the like, you know, kids are using litter boxes kind of stuff, which is, you know, is just absurd. And but like, you know, goes around. But then there's like this other box of issues that actually are like policy issues that are being debated. And so people and people are gonna be on different sides of that. So go go a little deeper on that, because like, there's definitely some wedge issues being but there's also like, there's just a lot of issues suddenly in play on schools.

Morgan Polikoff: 00:12:52

Yeah, I think that's right. And I think that, you know, one thing that is happening these days, right, is that a lot of it seems like virtually every issue gets sort of like immediately gets attached to partisan valence that you're supposed to feel about it in a particular way. Right. So, you know, one example could be, um, which I said I didn't want to talk about, but the California math framework, right, which has been a, which has gotten a particular partisan valence on it. Right. Right. Where, you know, folks from the right are saying that the math framework is watering down expectations and kids aren't going to get to calculus and it gets tied up in this republican Democrat thing, although there are plenty of people who are Democrats and liberals and, you know, and racial at, you know, racial justice advocates who also express concern about it. And, um, so that's just an example of the ways in which these things get sort of tied up pretty quickly. But I think we're kind of regardless of the topic, right? There's lots of other examples, you know.

Andy Rotherham: 00:13:55

I mean, something I've noticed is just in Virginia, like everything gets put through a partisan lens, even when it's not because that's just now the frame that everybody brings to it. Right. And so, like, if the state board has a split vote, like, It's just reported as, it has to be a partisan split when often the, there's a split vote, but it's split across like lines of who appointed Yeah. Uh, you know, governors for whatever party appointed particular members. And that's been really interesting to me. But like that, that's just lost. It's just assumed that if it's split, it's gonna be split on partisan lines. And I think you see that with like a lot of things the way it's consumed now.

Morgan Polikoff: 00:14:33

Yeah, and I mean, to be clear, and I'm not a political scientist or anything like that, but my understanding is that

Andy Rotherham: 00:14:39

you play one on Twitter, so it's alright.

Morgan Polikoff: 00:14:41

That, that like the salience of political identity is huge and growing, right? And so, so these kinds of things. Happen. I mean that people attach. I mean, it's just, it's just a, it's just a very meaningful thing to people. The partisanship, you know, this partisanship and the partisan identity in a way that didn't used to be so much right. That like in the olden days, you might have had neighbors and you didn't even know what their partisan identity was or maybe, or maybe you voted for people of different parties, but you were actually quite similar on issues. And these days it's like everything gets split right on partisanship. And then also, I think there's this view that like, Okay. If you're on the wrong side, you're a bad person, which also, you know, uh, is, it's just really toxic. I mean, it's terrible.

Andy Rotherham: 00:15:26

Yeah, it is. And what do you think is the effect of that? Cause we're seeing that in the data as well. We're seeing there's two things. One, voters are indicating that they're more willing to subsume their own education preferences. Two, larger political and partisan concerns, and so that creates a problem for like issues like charter schools and school choice and so forth. And then the 2nd thing, which is sort of very related is just an increasing amount of just preference falsification where people are saying stuff that they don't actually think. And there's been some interesting work on that, but they, they are staying with the in group. Uh, because of their other political preferences, like, first of all, do you think those things are happening to a meaningful degree? And like, if so, what does that mean for, I mean, you do study education. What does that mean for education policymaking if we're in sort of a house of mirrors environment like that or political house mirrors, I guess?

Morgan Polikoff: 00:16:20

It's a good question. I mean, I think at the same time, I think that we shouldn't overstate the extent to which all of these trends are permanent or that things can't happen rapidly. I mean, I think, you know, one of the sort of taken for granted. So I'm dodging your question because I don't have a good answer for it. But I think one of one of the sort of taken for granted. Views of American politics in the last couple decades is about racial demographics in particular, right? And so like that black and Hispanic voters are Democrats. And I think clearly they have been and national elections. But also, I think that, you know, recent election results have showed that black and Hispanic voters are, can be convinced to vote for Republicans and, and, and especially that, that, that those groups are not a monolith by any stretch, right? That Hispanic voters in certain regions look very different from Hispanic voters in other regions, that there are, that there are effective angles for peeling off those voters and that culture issues can sometimes be effective in that regard. And, um, so, so, you know, I think there's this sort of view that everything only heads in one direction, and I don't believe that, I think that, that things can change very rapidly, you know, I mean, no one would have predicted Trump or that, or that Trump would have had such enormous long tails, you know, even though he's been indicted so many times by now, um, and, and he's going to continue to have tails, even if he goes to prison or even if he gets elected president again, right? Like, No one could predict that.

Andy Rotherham: 00:17:55

Yeah. Yeah. No, I think that, I think that's right. There is. And, and like it, but it is interesting. Like I, I couldn't, you couldn't help but miss in education circles in 2020, like just no one was appreciating that like the one group of voters that Trump, you know, um, wasn't making inroads with, and this is what, you know, you saw this clearly the exits was, was white men, right. Other groups he was making inroads and. Because politics is, it's, it's complicated. And to your earlier point, we've gotten into these very reductionist political frames. And you're seeing this like a real liability, uh, for, for Biden going into 2024 is, will there be an erosion of support, um, uh, among minority voters? Do you think education is playing a role in that?

Morgan Polikoff: 00:18:40

I don't know. I mean, I think that there are lots of barriers to education being sort of a salient. National political issue. I just think, uh, you know, what even are the national, I mean, what even are national education policies? What role does the federal government play on education issues? I think the, just the vast majority of people are making decisions on a lot of other things before they would even come to education, you know, abortion, I think will be one that like clearly Democrats want to have high salience. I think the economy is one that Republicans, you know, want to have high salience. Uh, the war, I mean, there's a war in Israel that just started last week, and who knows what impact that could have. His age, I mean, there's just so many issues to me that come way before education. So is it possible that there are some marginal voters who that really affects their vote? I guess. But as someone who studies education and cares a lot about education, I think it would be really wild to base your vote for president. on their education views.

Andy Rotherham: 00:19:48

They used to ask a question, the Post used to ask a question in their polls, and they stopped doing it, it was too bad, it was, they basically would ask you if you were going to vote on a single issue, like would this issue be it, and education was always around 10%. So about 10 percent of voters said, and then you looked at some other issues, like guns, abortion, like much higher percentage of voters were like, I would not vote for a candidate who didn't share my position on this this particular issue was only 10 percent on education was always a soft, um, it was always a soft issue, but just backing up, I mean, like Hispanic Americans and black Americans are more conservative culturally as voters again, like in our sector that doesn't show up so much, um, uh, in terms of the professional class, but just overall, like that is it. And our sector is way to the left of the median, obviously. Like, so do you think like, I mean, some of this stuff, it just seems like, and we're seeing some evidence on this, you know, abortion is obviously a millstone for the Republicans that they haven't figured out how to deal with yet, but on some of these other issues, it seems like there's a way to make inroads with more culturally conservative voters on, on, on a number of these issues.

Morgan Polikoff: 00:20:58

I think, I think so. I think certainly they're trying, um, you know, and I mean, you can see this in the sort of. edge case scenarios that Republicans like to talk endlessly about, especially with regard to trans issues, which I think is like, you know, the case where public opinion is probably the softest. Um,

Andy Rotherham: 00:21:18

what do you mean by softest on, on, on, unpack what do you mean by that?

Morgan Polikoff: 00:21:23

I just mean in terms of what the public actually believes about trans people and what they support. I mean, uh, not just in schools, but in general, I think. I mean, first of all, a lot of people just don't understand what it is. And second of all, I think that, you know, like with, you know, like with gay rights, which took a very long time for there to be majority support for gay rights, right? That didn't happen until, like, What the two thousands... last decade. Yeah, right. Um, uh, you know, and it took ages and I mean, you know, we were perverts and pedophiles for a very long time. And then all of a sudden now we're not right. And, you know, and, uh, I think with trans is just another group that, um, I think often gets lumped together with gay for political for lots of reasons, right? We're sexual minorities in various ways. And we have, I think, some similar issues. But I think, um, you know, it's not obvious that just because a majority of people supports gay marriage means that a majority of people, people supports all different varieties of trans rights. And I might personally support all of those varieties of trans rights, and I do, but I think that, you know, there are these edge cases that people like to bring up, you know, at, you know, young, uh, con, um, uh, what's the, transitioning for, for kids who are pre pubescent, right? That, that would be an example. Um, Sports teams, girls sports teams. God, how much are we talking about girls sports teams for what are probably like 10 cases in the entire United States, right? And so these kinds of issues where I think, yeah, they probably can appeal to people with more small c conservative values.

Andy Rotherham: 00:23:07

Yeah, let's stay on that for a second, because I, I do, like, the thing that has struck me, the gay rights movement picked, like, very attractive valence topics, so marriage, like, it was basically, look, you're not losing anything here, but why shouldn't people have, be able to marry whomever they want? You sort of, to your earlier point, That issue evolved very quickly. I mean, Obama was opposed to gay marriage when he ran for president in 2008, but it evolved, but it like, it made intuitive sense to people, um, and started to enjoy the strong support it enjoys now. Cause it was just like, well, you're not losing anything and why shouldn't people have access to this, to this right? And the interesting thing on the trans issues with schools is it's really difficult issues. So we, you know, we've picked the two big ones. are this issue of should schools conceal transitions from parents, which polls absolutely terribly. I mean, I'm sure you've, you've seen the polling and then sports. And it's like, these are not necessarily meanwhile, like 70 percent of people say you shouldn't, there should be anti discrimination policies in place. to protect trans people and trans kids. Like that's like a, you know, a strong majority position right now, but instead like the targets have become these like very divisive issues where the public's not there and the case can actually, in my view, be pretty, be hard to make the case, the case of athletics is a tricky one at the level of like really elite athletics. Yeah. Um, and it's like, it's like they've, they've, they've good successful movements, pick really smart targets. Right. And like Martin Luther King was like brilliant as a strategist on picking really, really smart targets. Gandhi did that. And they've picked like some unpopular targets, which are not only to your point, making it toxic, just are also making it like politically just throwing up headwinds. Do you, I mean, do you see it like that?

Morgan Polikoff: 00:24:57

Um, yeah, I mean, I, listen, there's, it's clear that, as you say, right, that movements pick targets and some targets are, are, you know, are, are better and worse from the standpoint of being defensible, I think, to the general public and, you know, and in terms of where support is headed, in terms of like appeals to fairness and people's basic values. Absolutely. Um, you know, and some of these issues I think are, are legitimately tricky, right? I mean, both of those issues that you raised are legitimately tricky. As an, as a gay man myself, I can say that I was out to friends in high school, and I was not out to my mother. And if my teachers had taken it upon themselves to tell my mother, that would have been bad and very traumatic, even though my mom is fine and wonderful, right? And like came around and I was not ready for that. And I think that that would be a disaster, right? And so, but on the other hand, I understand the other side of the argument, right? What sounds like concealment, you know, could be seen by the educators as they're protecting the interests of kids and they're just

Andy Rotherham: 00:26:08

Can I ask you a question? I appreciate you being so candid on this and sharing, like, you've twice now shared like real, you know, personal aspects of your life. Like, is part of, like, I don't think most people support a policy of sort of outing a kid. So finding out, like, Morgan might be gay, we should tell his parents. But the issue is, like, are schools going to actively transition kids? Like, give them counseling, things like that. And, like, it seems to me... Part of what's happened as these issues have gotten more and more, um, toxic and heated up is, like, just that gray area that schools operate in, which is not just about gay kids, it's about a lot of stuff that kids are doing as adolescents that schools are kind of aware of, but not necessarily formally aware, like, we, because some schools went way over the line in terms of respecting the rights of families in that space, we've now like shrunk the room for discretion, it's become like a much more freighted conversation. Whereas before you just wanted a little, you just wanted a little bit of space. So that was like, that was like a healthy thing. Do you, I mean, do you. Do you know any sense?

Morgan Polikoff: 00:27:18

Yeah, it does. I mean, as I said, and I, and I believe this, there's just not an answer here. That's going to satisfy everyone. And, uh, and I do think that you're right. That with the sort of, you're right in an extremely obvious, but nonetheless worth saying way, which is picking out positions that people really don't like on average. And then, you know, forcing, uh, conformity to those positions and if you don't agree with those positions that you're a bad person and a heretic, that is not a good strategy. And I think as, you know, and I have, I, I can tell you many times people have come up to me and said things about. You know, very progressive people have come up to me and said things about trans issues in schools that they're uncomfortable with that they would not say aloud, even, you know, I mean, even I'm having a little bit of discomfort about having this conversation with you because I'm thinking that, um, that someone might take a sentence out of context and use it to attack me and, uh, and, you know, that's just the reality of the situation. And I'm aware of what I'm saying all the time.

Andy Rotherham: 00:28:30

Yeah, no, it is, and it's, and again, 'cause it's toxic and it's like this game of Gotcha. And like you would assume people, like, I mean, I start from a place of like, I think like we should champion both sort of freedom and inclusion are like two very, and, and our public schools should, should, should model that. But you're right, it's very, um, uh, it's just very freighted and hot and it, it, and then it's hard to, I, I don't see how we solve this if we keep having these conversations where it's like, You know, people send you an email, but like, don't tell anyone I said this, or I actually agree on this, but I can't say it like, like, we, like, we, we have to just get back to more of a culture of like people. I mean, and there, and we should be clear. There are some people in this debate who are not well intentioned. There are some people who, like, I would, I would characterize are like, haters are not like, They're not people who are just like, I don't think schools should conceal things from parents and, but we should also, you know, protect these kids. They're people who go like much further, but like a lot of the people in the debate, I think are, are reasonable, well intentioned, but you can't, how do we possibly, without a more healthy culture of free expression, work through, as you just said, are like really complicated questions, right?

Morgan Polikoff: 00:29:41

Yeah, no. And I mean, I think that, you know, to some extent I would say what we need are some good models, right? We need models of policies and practices that you know, that bring people together rather than dividing them, that, that, you know, that are broadly supportive, but do protect the interests of children, um, and, and I don't know, you know, these are very difficult questions, right? And so, but I do think we need some of that, right? Rather than, you know, turning, you know, calling something a book ban or saying that you're trying to indoctrinate children, sort of both of which are kind of not really true most of the time. Right? Like, what is a reasonable policy on, like, what should a history curriculum include in terms of, you know, the represent, you know, the contributions of people of color, the contributions of women and LGBT individuals, you know, all kinds, all these difficult conversations. We need models, right, that we can... That are real.

Andy Rotherham: 00:30:41

You know what's crazy? It goes to this thing, like, if you get, I, I don't know if you've had a chance to read it. Virginia's uh, high school curriculum now on both sort of the gay rights movement and then like some of the legal cases, particularly Obergfel is actually really strong on this. But because it's Virginia, nobody, like everybody, for your point, everybody's so in their corners, right? People just assume a set of things, which brings me like, I like the work you do. I think like one model is just how do we get back to analyzing things sort of as they are, not necessarily the rightness and wrongness, but with public opinion, just being like, here is the landscape. Here is what people think. Here is the political. Behavior we're seeing without immediately getting it freighted with like who's right or wrong or what we believe. I feel like we've lost the ability just to say, Hey, you know what? 20 percent of people think this. You may think that they're the correct 20% or they're the wrong 20%. You may not have a strong opinion, but we, we can't even get to like it's 20%. We, we, we immediately like, so talk about that and like in your own work, analyzing public opinion, how that shows up.

Morgan Polikoff: 00:31:51

Yeah, absolutely. I mean, listen, I think it's actually a much bigger problem than you raise, I think with pretty much. The whole social sciences, um, that a large proportion of people in the social sciences in general and an education research in particular come to research with the answer that they want already in front of them, right? That they know what they want the research to find. And it's just impossible to believe that that doesn't, you know, I mean, that shapes the questions you ask that shapes your interpretations of the data. It shapes whether you even would share results that run counter to, you know, your conclusions and, and this is not just a left problem, although I think it, you know, certainly the overwhelming majority of. People in education research are left. Um, I am quite left and I am to the right of most people that I know in my field. Um, but it's a right problem too. And you can see that on, you know, I mean, school choice people who who's conveniently every single study they've ever published on school choice has a positive effect. Right? So, like. It's, it's not hard to find these things.

Andy Rotherham: 00:32:54

Or you move the goalposts.

Morgan Polikoff: 00:32:56

Yeah, absolutely.

Andy Rotherham: 00:32:57

It's not about test scores. It was like the most important thing, suddenly it's a whole new thing.

Morgan Polikoff: 00:33:02

Right, it's not about test scores, it's about parent satisfaction or whatever. So, listen, I'm one of these old timey people who believes in like, trying to be objective and trying to get to the truth, which I think some people, you know, I mean we could have a whole conversation about whether there is a truth to But, um, but, I mean, I think the reality of the, you know, I think to go back to the same example of gay rights, right? Like, how was gay rights, how did that happen in a very short time, you know? I mean, it was a long time, but then it was a short time, right? And, you know, when I was a kid, when I was in high school, like, being gay was still bad. And within 10 years, that was not the case anymore, right? And how did that happen? Through Y'know, Through, you know, through public figures making statements, through people coming out of the closet, coming out of the closet, through, I think, media had a huge role, you know, television and movies, and lots of other things, too. Um, and I think that, but it's important to understand where people are for lots of reasons. I mean, at its most basic level, I want Democrats to win elections. And I think that you have to understand where your policy positions are. are supported and opposed, where they're winning you votes and losing you votes. And so to know the reality of how people view issues related to controversial topics in the curriculum, which is a report that we put out last year and we're doing another survey, it's in the field right now. Um, it's really essential, right? You know, I, I think as a kid, again, as a gay kid growing up in public schools, it would have been great to have positive role models about LGBT people in the curriculum. I think people actually are pretty supportive of that for high school kids, but they're really not for elementary school kids.

Andy Rotherham: 00:34:53

Even for role models?

Morgan Polikoff: 00:34:55

I think the contributions of LGBT people is one topic that can work in elementary schools, but you know, in general, other kinds of LGBT related topics like... The, you know, same sex couples or, you know, Children with same sex parents. People are squishy on that for elementary kids. And so, and that's a challenge. Um, and, and I think that that will change over time. And I think that there are probably more specific examples that you could come up with that people will be comfortable with, even if they're not comfortable with the broad category. But yeah, absolutely. It's important to know these things. Um, if you're gonna, you know, if you're going to drive change and I think. And just also, it's just important to know the truth of things. So it's a good way for me as a, as a, as a, uh, a gay college professor in Los Angeles, who's in the most ridiculous bubble you ever saw?

Andy Rotherham: 00:35:46

You're telling me you're the median voter in the country.

Morgan Polikoff: 00:35:49

All right, yeah, exactly. It's important to get outside your bubble and actually data gets you outside your bubble, if you let it.

Andy Rotherham: 00:35:56

Yeah, no, I mean, I think that's like super, we use a book sometimes that, that, you know, that this, uh, Julia Galef wrote this book, The Scout Mindset. And like, just this idea that, like, you need an accurate map. It doesn't mean, like, If you just agree with whatever public opinion is, you're a windsock. It's not, it's not about that, but it's just like you just need to, you need to know and to your point to win elections, whichever party you're in, you need like an accurate view of the landscape. I was like the Democrats. I think they underestimated, um, how popular some of DeSantis's early childhood policies were, and then. Consequently, they were out of position for when he overplayed his hand on extending all that stuff to high school. Right. And like, if you had, if you had actually analyzed the public opinion properly, you would have been in a better position to attack. And instead they, you know, the Democrats came off like the boy who cried wolf with some policies that were like DeSantis said, like, you know, I've said this before, he has no limiting principle. And so he like staked out some like really unpopular ground. Yeah.

Morgan Polikoff: 00:37:00

Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, I agree.

Andy Rotherham: 00:37:02

Um, so, okay. So in your own work, I'm just curious, like when you're working with graduate students and you're like, how does that show up? How are you like, because I think you're, I think the way you described the situation, but it is, everybody gets upset when you both sides, but it is both sides like are doing all kinds of. Um, really sort of motivated reasoning around stuff. So, like, how do you and your teaching and work with students in your work? Like, how do you guard against that?

Morgan Polikoff: 00:37:30

Um, I mean, the thing about me is that I am, like, very authentically who I am at all times. And so it's very hard for me not to, it's very hard for me to do anything other than what I just described, right? So, like, I'm, you know, we did this controversial topics report, I think last year, it definitely came up with some conclusions that I wish were not true. Um, about what people think about LGBT topics and race related topics in the curriculum, but that's what the data showed, right? And so now there are ways to write about it and, uh, you know, in ways that, um, I mean, the thing is this, right? So, like, we put out the report. I think it was pretty straightforward. And I think, you know, tells the story of the data very accurately. And then it's another thing to then go write a commentary about your concerns about. Thank you. Those conclusions, right? So like, as an example, one of my former students, who's now a researcher at the center that I work with, he wrote a piece about the finding that, that parents basically think they should have more control and be able to opt their kids out of lessons they disagree with. And he wrote about. How logistically that's unworkable, and it would be a disaster for various other reasons as well. And, and I fully, I didn't co author that with him, but I fully support his argument and agree with him on that topic. Um, but that's different from writing in the report what it is that the data actually show.

Andy Rotherham: 00:38:53

Right, right.

Morgan Polikoff: 00:38:54

And so, you know, I mean, listen, I have opinions. Clearly, if you follow me on Twitter, you see all my opinions. But I think what you, I think what is hopefully also clear is that... I'm a straight shooter in terms of what the data show and I just model that for my students all the time because that's just how I can't, I can't do it any other way than that.

Andy Rotherham: 00:39:12

Well, it's the sign and they used to say, like, you know, keeping 2 opposing ideas in your head is a sign of a first rate mind. I also think, and this is a compliment to you, I think the ability to actually do that and to sort of go between those 2 roles, like, is, is, is the sign of a strong mind and we just don't have enough of it in the, in the sector. And sometimes you just want to know, tell me if it's raining or if it's going to snow. I don't really care about your views on the weather. I just want to know what's going on. I don't really care if you like sunny days or rainy days or whatever. Um, and it's harder and harder to sort of get that kind of accurate forecasting, which we need, which brings you the last thing I want to talk to you about before I let you go, you've been really generous with your time. There seems to be a disconnect between what we're seeing show up in a lot of data. So state tests, NAEP tests, various commercial formative assessments, you know, map and, um, you know, curriculum associates stuff and all of that, a huge disconnect between that and what parents think. Yeah. So you study this and as we now establish, you have a first rate mind. So tell us what the hell's going on.

Morgan Polikoff: 00:40:18

Yeah. It's this really remarkable finding, right? So if you ask experts for the most part, not all people, but experts are really concerned, you know, we're talking about learning loss. We're talking about decline, historic declines on NAEP or, or, or pick an assessment. Um, and, and not just test scores, right. It's other stuff too. It's behavior and attendance and. Lots of different things. And then you ask parents about it. And we've done this on our surveys. But other people have found it too. And, and parents just aren't that concerned. Um, on average, they're not that concerned. In fact, I've seen a few different surveys. I don't know if this is true across all the surveys I've seen, but I've seen a few different surveys that say, where parents actually say, my kid's better off than they were before COVID. More parents will say that than say the opposite. And, so what is this about? The test score thing, I think, is to some extent the most obvious of those, which is How would a parent know that their kid is worse off than they would have been if COVID had not happened, right? That's this unbelievably complex counterfactual that, like, how would you know, right? At most, what are you going to see? You might see percentile ranks, and you might, if you went to last year's score, you could see how their percentile changed. Or you might see, like, they were above proficient, and now they're below proficient, if you were paying any attention to that. But it might also be the case that you don't get the test scores until next year anyway. Or your kids taking all these tests during the school year and they send you reports and you have no idea how to make any sense of them. Um, and so there's,

Andy Rotherham: 00:41:46

look, there's a bias, let me just jump in here and then I want to, I think there's a bias there. People have trouble admitting that they're like on the wrong long distance plan or that they like didn't buy the car that was probably the best car for them to buy. How, I think it's, as a parent, it's just incredibly difficult to be like, oh yeah, we made some choices here. Or, or my kids were party to this, but a public choices and it's really bad. And I just think that's like a hard thing as a parent to bring yourself.

Morgan Polikoff: 00:42:11

I think that's, I think that's true, but I also think, and we've, so right now we're in the middle of this study where, so we've been surveying people over and over again about this topic, and now, now we actually sampled some of them who differed in their rate, their ratings, and we interviewed them to try and understand, okay, well, what would they tell us in an interview versus what they're telling us on the survey? And I think the reality is, That I mean, yes, you're right. It's hard for parents to say, Oh, my kid was really harmed. But but but for the most part, they actually think that once kid, the vast majority of parents that we've talked to think once their kids got back in school, things were pretty much fine. Right. And they got back on track pretty quick. And You know, they're doing just fine. And, you know, one reason is because they're getting signals from the school that the kids doing fine, right? The grades are really high. If anything, the grade inflation is, you know, making the grade seem higher. There are definitely some parents who will say, This really screwed my kid up in various ways. I think, for the most part, those are non academic concerns. They are behavioral concerns or child well being the kid had mental health issues that cropped up during kovat things like that There are some who will say yeah, my kids achievement declined but I just don't think that there's there's not a clear signal to parents about that at all and Uh, and there probably never really was, but certainly the very, you know, this, this very, um, important point about how the kid is doing relative to how they would have been doing if it had not happened, just no one has that kind of information, right? And so why would we expect them to be aware of that? And then why would we expect them to act on that by enrolling their kids in interventions or by pushing for various policy changes? It just doesn't make any sense. Well, it's a little, and even like, it's, it's not just the people don't know it's being actively communicated the other way, right? Like you're seeing a lot of places say, don't worry about the test scores where, you know, it's, it's, it's, if you go on Amazon, usually it's either number one or number two, the most popular book is this book on street data, which is basically a how to for how to like clutter up the data landscape so much that parents that you lose the noise signal ratio gets out of whack. Yeah. And so I think I do, I do think there's an effort people perceive some of this is like a public relations problem. Rather than educational problem. And so that is showing up as well. And like, it's been hard for either elected officials or reformers, or there's aren't as many parent groups like learning heroes is doing a lot of really good work on this, but just to try to just punch through and say, No, there's a problem here, you got to pay attention. And so, like, I mean, it's not surprising to me that parents like do feel the way they do, because I'm not sure people are really aggressively trying to tell them otherwise. I think I think that's right. But But then again, I think that Yeah. Even if people are telling you otherwise, what you're going to look at probably is your own kid for the most part. And if you're getting the signal from your, you know, as you said, if you're not getting data that's telling you that your kid is doing any worse than they were, if anything, that you're getting data that they're doing better because their grades are higher. Right. You're not going to be that concerned, right? And I mean, I think that's kind of always been true, but I think it's, you know, it just becomes so important right now because of the damage that was done.

Andy Rotherham: 00:45:26

Yeah, well, look, that's a bit of a depressing note to end on. On the other hand, Like it's a, it's a, like the fact that like people like you are out there doing, like, you know, that you're trying to do that work and just shed light on what's going on. And again, just build like an accurate model of the world for people, whatever they think about it, but just an accurate model of what things actually look like at any point in time, like that, like that's encouraging. Cause I know it would be a lot easier for you to, to take a dive on a lot of this stuff. And so it's really admirable that you are out there doing the kind of work you're doing. The field's lucky to have you.

Morgan Polikoff: 00:45:59

Thank you very much.

Andy Rotherham: 00:46:00

I'll end on that. I'll end on that happy note instead. If Jed were here, he'd be very upset with me for not asking about charters and choice. We'll have to have you back to, uh, we'll have to, we'll have to have you back for a special school choice episode.

Morgan Polikoff: 00:46:14

Sounds good.

Andy Rotherham: 00:46:14

All right. This is great. Thank you, Morgan.

Morgan Polikoff: 00:46:16

Yeah. Nice to talk with you.